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    The Relation Between Political Stability and Economic Growth: The Turkish Case
    (2018) Diken, Ahmet; Parlakkaya, Raif; Erkan , Kara; Kodalak, Oğuzhan
    This study investigates the long run relationship between political stability and economic growth of Turkey in between 2002and 2016. Political stability has been referred to be one the causes of existence of strong institutions together with democracy foreconomic development for countries around the world. Empirical investigations have shown that strong institutions will besupported by political stability and democratic governance, and that these institutions will bring about robust economic growth.This work first focuses on how political stability index is related with the country’s economic output level (GDP) and then thefocus moves on to see the long run relation between political stability and several other prevalent macro-economic variables suchas inflation rate, exchange rate and short term interest rates. For this purpose, a bivariate regression models were used by runningARDL method. The study found that the political stability index, when used as sole independent variable, had no long runrelationship with each of the selected macro-economic variables including gross domestic product when testing by Bound test ofPesaran. Later, a multivariate regression was used to see the effect of political stability index together with selected macroeconomicvariables on economic growth of Turkey. Upon building our econometric modeling for long run relation, themultivariate regression results suggest that, while political stability has positive relation with economic growth in the long run, itseems to be irrelevant in the short term. In addition, inflation is found to have a negative relation with economic growth in thelong run, that is, when inflation increases the economic growth slows down in Turkey. One of the finding is that lagged value ofexchange rate implies that decareasing value of Turkish lira put downward pressure on the economic growth.