Yazar "Ozsahin, Serife" seçeneğine göre listele

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    The causal linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty under structural breaks: Evidence from Turkey
    (Wiley, 2021) Apergis, Nicholas; Bulut, Umit; Ucler, Gulbahar; Ozsahin, Serife
    The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for Turkey through monthly data spanning the period 2004:01-2019:12. To this end, the paper first builds the inflation uncertainty series using inflation data. Second, it examines the cointegration relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Finally, it searches for causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The paper employs econometric methods which explicitly consider structural breaks. After examining the inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus for the whole sample, the analysis also investigates this relationship in two subperiods, i.e., 2004:5-2010:10 and 2010:11:2019:12 considering the change in the monetary policy framework of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The findings provide evidence that there exists unidirectional causality running from inflation to inflation uncertainty for both the whole sample and the second subperiod, while there is no causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty for the first subperiod. Overall, the results show that during the second subperiod (i) when the CBRT tried to achieve not only price stability, but also financial stability and (ii) when the inflation rate is more volatile and higher, the increase in the inflation rate results in an increase in inflation uncertainty.
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    The Consequences of Corruption on Inflation in Developing Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Tests
    (Mdpi Ag, 2017) Ozsahin, Serife; Ucler, Gulbahar
    Up until the 1980s, studies on corruption were dominated by disciplines of public administration and sociology. In the following years, however, economists have also provided a good amount of research on this issue. According to Transparency International Agency, corruption, which has a negative impact on most macroeconomic indicators, is the abuse of entrusted power for private gain. Even though the disruption of corruption causing weak growth and investment rates has long been examined, there is little evidence regarding its impact on inflation. In this study, the nexus between corruption and inflation was investigated for 20 countries over the period 1995-2015. Estimation results indicated that high corruption increased inflation rates, and that there was a unidirectional causal relationship from corruption to inflation for ten countries in the sample.
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    Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence
    (Springer, 2023) Ozmen, Ibrahim; Ozsahin, Serife
    This study explores the time-varying effect of global energy price and non-energy price changes on domestic inflation in Turkey using monthly data from January 2003 to February 2022. There is significant evidence of full-sample causality from global and non-energy prices to domestic inflation. Time-varying causality findings show that global energy and non-energy prices have a strong time-stamp effect on domestic inflation. In addition to this, the threshold findings show that energy and non-energy prices differ at the time of domestic inflation in a nonlinear relationship. The multi-structural break test findings clearly indicate energy and non-energy price break date collinearity with Turkey's inflation. Time-varying causality findings provide evidence that energy prices-the first wave-and non-energy prices-the second wave-create two waves on domestic consumer prices. However, this does not seem to be the only problem policymakers have to overcome in the fight against domestic inflation, because both price indices are effective through Turkey's currency channel.
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    The Empirical Analysis of Nominal Exchange Rate and Sectoral Output: An Investigation on Turkish Economy
    (Eskisehir Osmangazi Univ, Fac Education, 2017) Ozsahin, Serife; Gerceker, Mustafa; Ay, Ahmet
    This study aims to investigate the relationship between nominal exchange rate and sectoral output in seven sub-sectors of the Turkish economy by using control variables including money supply, public expenditure, oil prices and unemployment rate. Possible relations were tried to be determined by using bound test and ARDL method for the period 1998. Q1-2015Q3. It was concluded that there is a long-run relationship in all sectors excluding construction and accordingly, long-run coefficients and equations were estimated for six sectors. The estimation of long-run coefficients indicates that the rise in the nominal exchange rate affects sectoral output negatively at sectors where imported inputs are high because of the cost effect such as manufacturing industry.
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    The Regional Dynamics of Economic Growth: Evidence from GMM Estimation in Turkey
    (Kasersart Univ, Fac Economics, 2019) Gomleksiz, Mustafa; Ozsahin, Serife
    Recently, a growing body of research has dealt with the causes of growth differences in the context of regional economies. It can be argued that such differences mostly arise from a variety of economic and structural determinants pertain to regional characteristics. This study investigates the effects of potential determinants of regional economic growth in Turkey. In this respect, we examine the impact of human capital, R&D, exports, public investments, inflation and unemployment on per capita regional income across the 26 NUTS 2 regions 2008-2014 period. The results of the difference and the system GMM estimations show that human capital and R&D are essential for economic growth at a regional level. According to the results, exports, public investments, and inflation are also important determinants of regional economic growth. However, empirical results indicate an inverse relationship between regional growth and unemployment.
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    Role of Financial Development on Entrepreneurship in the Emerging Market Economies
    (Eskisehir Osmangazi Univ, Fac Education, 2016) Kar, Muhsin; Ozsahin, Serife
    This paper examines the role of financial development on entrepreneurship by employing panel data estimation methods for 17 emerging markets economies over the period 2004-2009. The financial development indicators, the impact of institutional factors and economic conditions on entrepreneurship will be empirically investigated in the analysis. In order to determine the linkages among the variables, two different measures for financial development and three institutional factors will be utilized in the analysis. Empirical findings indicate that while financial development and per capita income level have significantly and positively affected on entrepreneurship as theoretically expected, inflation rate has had negatively and significantly influencing entrepreneurship. Additionally, the effects of control of corruption and political stability, as institutional factors, on entrepreneurship are positive but insignificant.