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    The causal linkage between inflation and inflation uncertainty under structural breaks: Evidence from Turkey
    (Wiley, 2021) Apergis, Nicholas; Bulut, Umit; Ucler, Gulbahar; Ozsahin, Serife
    The goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty for Turkey through monthly data spanning the period 2004:01-2019:12. To this end, the paper first builds the inflation uncertainty series using inflation data. Second, it examines the cointegration relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Finally, it searches for causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The paper employs econometric methods which explicitly consider structural breaks. After examining the inflation-inflation uncertainty nexus for the whole sample, the analysis also investigates this relationship in two subperiods, i.e., 2004:5-2010:10 and 2010:11:2019:12 considering the change in the monetary policy framework of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The findings provide evidence that there exists unidirectional causality running from inflation to inflation uncertainty for both the whole sample and the second subperiod, while there is no causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty for the first subperiod. Overall, the results show that during the second subperiod (i) when the CBRT tried to achieve not only price stability, but also financial stability and (ii) when the inflation rate is more volatile and higher, the increase in the inflation rate results in an increase in inflation uncertainty.
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    The Consequences of Corruption on Inflation in Developing Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Causality Tests
    (Mdpi Ag, 2017) Ozsahin, Serife; Ucler, Gulbahar
    Up until the 1980s, studies on corruption were dominated by disciplines of public administration and sociology. In the following years, however, economists have also provided a good amount of research on this issue. According to Transparency International Agency, corruption, which has a negative impact on most macroeconomic indicators, is the abuse of entrusted power for private gain. Even though the disruption of corruption causing weak growth and investment rates has long been examined, there is little evidence regarding its impact on inflation. In this study, the nexus between corruption and inflation was investigated for 20 countries over the period 1995-2015. Estimation results indicated that high corruption increased inflation rates, and that there was a unidirectional causal relationship from corruption to inflation for ten countries in the sample.