Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan

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dc.contributor.authorNaik, Parvaiz Ahmad
dc.contributor.authorYavuz, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorQureshi, Sania
dc.contributor.authorZu, Jian
dc.contributor.authorTownley, Stuart
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-23T14:26:24Z
dc.date.available2024-02-23T14:26:24Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentNEÜen_US
dc.description.abstractCoronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause different symptoms, from mild cold to severe respiratory distress, and they can be seen in different types of animals such as camels, cattle, cats and bats. Novel coronavirus called COVID-19 is a newly emerged virus that appeared in many countries of the world, but the actual source of the virus is not yet known. The outbreak has caused pandemic with 26,622,706 confirmed infections and 874,708 reported deaths worldwide till August 31, 2020, with 17,717,911 recovered cases. Currently, there exist no vaccines officially approved for the prevention or management of the disease, but alternative drugs meant for HIV, HBV, malaria and some other flus are used to treat this virus. In the present paper, a fractional-order epidemic model with two different operators called the classical Caputo operator and the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo operator for the transmission of COVID-19 epidemic is proposed and analyzed. The reproduction number R-0 is obtained for the prediction and persistence of the disease. The dynamic behavior of the equilibria is studied by using fractional Routh-Hurwitz stability criterion and fractional La Salle invariant principle. Special attention is given to the global dynamics of the equilibria. Moreover, the fitting of parameters through least squares curve fitting technique is performed, and the average absolute relative error between COVID-19 actual cases and the model's solution for the infectious class is tried to be reduced and the best fitted values of the relevant parameters are achieved. The numerical solution of the proposed COVID-19 fractional-order model under the Caputo operator is obtained by using generalized AdamsBashforth-Moulton method, whereas for the Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo operator, we have used a new numerical scheme. Also, the treatment compartment is included in the population which determines the impact of alternative drugs applied for treating the infected individuals. Furthermore, numerical simulations of the model and their graphical presentations are performed to visualize the effectiveness of our theoretical results and to monitor the effect of arbitrary-order derivative.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipChina Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2019M663653, 2014M560755]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [11971375, 11571272, 11201368, 11631012]; National Science and Technology Major Project of China [2018ZX10721202]; Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province [2019JM-273]; TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors would like to thank the reviewers and editors of this paper for their careful attention to detail and constructive feedback that improved the presentation of the paper greatly. The study was supported by grants from the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 2019M663653 and 2014M560755), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11971375, 11571272, 11201368 and 11631012), the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (Grant No. 2018ZX10721202) and the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (Grant No. 2019JM-273). The funding body did not play any roles in the design of the study and in writing the manuscript. M. Yavuz was supported by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey).en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00819-5
dc.identifier.issn2190-5444
dc.identifier.issue10en_US
dc.identifier.pmid33145145en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85094666798en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00819-5
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12452/14164
dc.identifier.volume135en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000582914000001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMeden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Heidelbergen_US
dc.relation.ispartofEuropean Physical Journal Plusen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subject[Keyword Not Available]en_US
dc.titleModeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistanen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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