Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security

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dc.contributor.authorAlipour, Mohammad
dc.contributor.authorHafezi, Reza
dc.contributor.authorErvural, Bilal
dc.contributor.authorAmin, Mohamad
dc.contributor.authorKabak, Ozgur
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-23T14:02:46Z
dc.date.available2024-02-23T14:02:46Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.departmentNEÜen_US
dc.description.abstractThe objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran's energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.176
dc.identifier.endpage931en_US
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn1873-6785
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85049356033en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage914en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.176
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12452/11842
dc.identifier.volume157en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000440876600079en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnergyen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectEnergy Securityen_US
dc.subjectMulti-Criteria Decision Makingen_US
dc.subjectCumulative Belief Degreeen_US
dc.subjectIntuitionistic Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchyen_US
dc.subjectProcessen_US
dc.subjectScenario Planningen_US
dc.titleLong-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports securityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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