Fractional order modelling of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant containing heart attack effect using real data from the United Kingdom

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dc.contributor.authorOzkose, Fatma
dc.contributor.authorYavuz, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorSenel, M. Tamer
dc.contributor.authorHabbireeh, Rafla
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-23T14:02:24Z
dc.date.available2024-02-23T14:02:24Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentNEÜen_US
dc.description.abstractIn this study, a new approach to COVID-19 pandemic is presented. In this context, a fractional order pandemic model is developed to examine the spread of COVID-19 with and without Omicron variant and its relationship with heart attack using real data from the United Kingdom. In the model, heart attack is adopted by considering its relationship with the quarantine strategy. Then, the existence, uniqueness, positivity and boundedness of the solution are studied. The equilibrium points and their stability conditions are achieved. Subsequently, we calculate the basic reproduction number (the virus transmission coefficient) that simply refers to the number of people, to whom an infected person can make infected, as R-0 = 3 . 6456 by using the next generation matrix method. Next, we consider the sensitivity analysis of the parameters according to R-0. In order to determine the values of the parameters in the model, the least squares curve fitting method, which is one of the leading methods in parameter estimation, is benefited. A total of 21 parameter values in the model are estimated by using real Omicron data from the United Kingdom. Moreover, in order to highlight the advantages of using fractional differential equations, applications related to memory trace and hereditary properties are given. Finally, the numerical simulations are presented to examine the dynamic behavior of the system. As a result of numerical simulations, an increase in the number of people who have heart attacks is observed when Omicron cases were first seen. In the future, it is estimated that the risk of heart attack will decrease as the cases of Omicron decrease. (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch Fund of the Erciyes Uni-versity [FDS-2021-11059]; TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey)en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported by Research Fund of the Erciyes Uni-versity. Project Number: FDS-2021-11059. M. Yavuz was supported by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) . The authors are very much thankful to the reviewers and editor for their valuable suggestions that have improved the qual-ity of the manuscript.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111954
dc.identifier.issn0960-0779
dc.identifier.issn1873-2887
dc.identifier.pmid35250194en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85125578131en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2022.111954
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12452/11700
dc.identifier.volume157en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000781975900007en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMeden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherPergamon-Elsevier Science Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofChaos Solitons & Fractalsen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectFractional Order Derivativeen_US
dc.subjectOmicron Sars-Cov-2 Varianten_US
dc.subjectHeart Attacken_US
dc.subjectParameter Estimation With Real Dataen_US
dc.subjectSensitivity Analysisen_US
dc.subjectMemory Trace And Hereditary Traitsen_US
dc.titleFractional order modelling of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant containing heart attack effect using real data from the United Kingdomen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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