Kamuoyu Araştırmalarının Siyasal Davranış Üzerindeki Etkisi: Aktif Seçmenden Pasif Seçmene Doğru
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Tarih
2017
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Bu çalışma kamuoyu araştırmalarının siyasal davranış üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaya yönelik olarak hazırlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada ilk olarak kamuoyu kavramı, kamuoyu araştırmaları ve siyasal davranış kavramlarına açıklık getirmek için literatür taraması yapılmıştır. Daha sonra Konya örneklemi üzerinde konuyla ilgili bir alan araştırması yapılarak bu araştırmada elde edilen veriler ışığında konu irdelenmiştir. Araştırma kapsamında öncelikle tanımlayıcı istatistiklere yer verilerek elde edilen bulgular gösterilmiş, daha sonra ise çıkarımcı istatistikler kullanılarak kamuoyu araştırmalarının etkisiyle demografik değişkenler ve araştırma kapsamında ele alınan diğer değişkenler ilişkilendirilmiştir. Bu istatistikler ışığında elde edilen sonuçlar kamuoyu araştırmalarının siyasal davranış üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Kamuoyu araştırmalarının etki yönünün de incelendiği çalışmada sonuç olarak Türk seçmeni üzerinde en çok bu araştırmaların kamçılanma etkisinin görüldüğü tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte yeni bir etki türü olarak "pasifleştirme" etkisinin olduğu da çalışma kapsamında elde edilen bir diğer önemli bulgudur. Bu sonuçlar Türk seçmeninin ideolojik ve parti kimliği modeli içinde oy verdiklerini göstermektedir. Nitekim her iki durumda da seçmen kendi tuttuğu parti dışında başka bir partiyi değerlendirmeye almamakta tuttuğu partinin kazanması için ya iyice motive olmakta ya da kazanacağı umudu kalmadı ise sandığa gitmekten vazgeçmektedir. Bu durum ise bireyleri seçmen davranışı olarak iki kutup üzerinde tutmaktadır. Bunun bir tarafında kazanmak için iyice aktif hale gelmiş ve bunun için her türlü çabayı gösteren bir seçmen tipi diğer tarafında ise kaybetmeyi baştan kabul ederek tamamen kendisini sürecin dışına atan pasif bir seçmen tipi bulunmaktadır
Nowadays, primarily governments, political organizations and various institutions conducting public opinion surveys to determine strategy. However, public opinion surveys in recent years, has emerged as a strategic tool used to direct political behavior rather than as a means of determining the strategy. From this point, it is possible to list the main aims of the research as follows: - To determine whether public opinion research has an effect on political behavior. - To reveal the relation of the effect of public opinion polls on political behavior with individuals's demographic characteristics, levels of political participation and decision-making time. - To determine which of the known effects of public opinion polls are seen more on the Turkish voters. Public opinion polls in research in Turkey are generally had dealt with in other propaganda tools. The number of studies that are independently conducted on public opinion polls is very limited. For this reason, this research, which is carried out in line with the main aims we have mentioned, is important in terms of revealing the relevance of public opinion polls to political behavior and its contribution to the related literature by examining this relation in comprehensively. In this context, firstly a literature review was conducted for clarifying the concepts of public opinion, public opinion surveys and political behaviour. Then, a survey research was conducted on the sample of Konya and the issue was examined In the light of the data obtained through that survey. When the data obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the public opinion surveys are followed by a large part of the population and the results of this researches have a certain effect on the political preferences. The level of the effect increases in parallel with the frequency of following public opinion surveys. So those who are most effected by those researches are the ones who most frequently follow those researches. It is seen that TV has the first place, when we look at the mass media, where the public opinion surveys are most frequently followed. The internet, newspapers, radio and magazines are the other ones in that category, respectively. The survey researches being news topic is a commonly seen case, especially in election periods. This situation is more striking for television and internet news. Particularly the internet having an interactive feature creates the ground for constantly occurrence of various large or small scale questionnaires on political preferences. This ensures the public opinion surveys remaining for a longer time on the voter agenda. On television, public opinion surveys are not only included in the news, but also most of the political programs emphasize those research results. As a result of that, voters' interest in public opinion survey results increases. The research shows also that, there is a relationship between the educational level of voters and their level of being effected by public opinion surveys. According to that result, it is revealed that the individuals with low educational levels are more affected by public opinion surveys. This may be due to the fact that the sources of political information vary according to the level of education. While political information resources of the individuals with low educational levels are more limited, political information sources of those with higher educational levels may be more diversified. For instance, political education of individuals with higher educational levels is realized not only through mass media, but also those individuals can easily enter into environments, where politics is more actively engaged, communicate with senior political bodies and reach higher political figures more easily. Hence that diversifies the sources of political information for individuals and allows them to be less exposed to the effects of information from only a single channel. The research also reveals that, there is a relationship between individuals’ political participation levels and times for decision-making; and their level of being effected through public opinion surveys. When the data on that issue is examined, it is found that a large majority of the participants attends politics at audience level and the effect of public opinion surveys is at the highest level on those individuals. When the times for decision-making on voting are observed, it is seen that more than half of the participants say that the party to be voted on is already been known well in advance, so they belong to the stable voter class. When the relationship between time for decision-making and the effect level of public opinion surveys is considered, it is found that the individuals in the stable voter class are least affected by the results of those researches. On the other hand, it is seen that the individuals in the unstable voter class; whose time for decision-making is not clear in advance, and decisions are made a few days before the elections, after the candidates are determined and they evaluate the election campaigns; are affected more by the public opinion surveys. When the data on the trust in public opinion surveys and the importance attributed to them are examined, the vast majority of individuals think that those surveys are important, but do not agree on the opinion that those researches are reliable. In addition, it has been found that the individuals, who have the opinion that public opinion surveys are important and reliable, are more affected by those surveys. According to the results of the correlation analysis, there is a positive relationship between the importance given to the public opinion surveys and the level of being affected by the public opinion surveys; and between the level of the reliance in the public opinion surveys and the level of being affected by those surveys. As a result, the stronger gets the opinion that public opinion surveys are important and reliable; the higher becomes their level of effect. One of the interesting results that emerged in the research is on the direction of the effect of public opinion surveys. It has been determined that the research have not revealed results corroborating the widespread thought suggesting the public opinion surveys to have an effect of creating a tendency through the popular one; but instead it was seen that those surveys may more commonly have a whiplash effect on Turkish voters. Regarding the data on that issue, it is seen that whiplash effect appears in the groups formed according to gender, age, income, occupation and education at a very high level, compared to the other effects. However, another important finding is that public opinion surveys has the effect of "passivating" on political behaviour, as a new type of effect. It can be argued from this finding that, the Turkish voters have a voting behaviour, which is more accordant with the party identity or ideological voting model. That is due to the degree of loyalty to the party being quite high for both models. For that reason; during their decision processes, voters may not even consider any other party than the party they adopted, while making voting decisions. In the study called "Political Communication" in which Kalender (2005: 228) examined the voter behaviour, similar results to the ones obtained in this study had been obtained, and the Turkish voters had been found to be not inclined to vote in the direction of rational choice model, but rather to vote according to religious beliefs and ideologies. Today, when central parties are involved in political arena, the fear of the minor party voters for their parties to be unable to pass the election threshold and their worry for their votes to be wasted, may lead them to the major parties. One question was also asked in the survey to measure that situation, and the results show that voters may vote for any political party in that anxiety. That result also measures the influence of public opinion surveys on voter behaviour, indirectly. Since, it is necessary for the voters to have knowledge about the voting rates of a party or candidate, in order to prefer a political party or candidate with such an idea. That kind of information before the election may only be achieved through public opinion surveys. So this shows that the voters, who vote for one of the parties with high voting rates for avoiding vote-split, vote indirectly under the of public opinion surveys. As a result, public opinion surveys affect political behaviour by directing voting behaviour of individuals. For that reason, it is seen that, the use of public opinion surveys as a strategic tool at the point of making electoral success for the political parties or the candidates for political decision-making mechanisms, is not an unavailing effort; and those surveys exceedingly deserve the interest shown to them by the politicians, and that interest will continue increasingly in the future.
Nowadays, primarily governments, political organizations and various institutions conducting public opinion surveys to determine strategy. However, public opinion surveys in recent years, has emerged as a strategic tool used to direct political behavior rather than as a means of determining the strategy. From this point, it is possible to list the main aims of the research as follows: - To determine whether public opinion research has an effect on political behavior. - To reveal the relation of the effect of public opinion polls on political behavior with individuals's demographic characteristics, levels of political participation and decision-making time. - To determine which of the known effects of public opinion polls are seen more on the Turkish voters. Public opinion polls in research in Turkey are generally had dealt with in other propaganda tools. The number of studies that are independently conducted on public opinion polls is very limited. For this reason, this research, which is carried out in line with the main aims we have mentioned, is important in terms of revealing the relevance of public opinion polls to political behavior and its contribution to the related literature by examining this relation in comprehensively. In this context, firstly a literature review was conducted for clarifying the concepts of public opinion, public opinion surveys and political behaviour. Then, a survey research was conducted on the sample of Konya and the issue was examined In the light of the data obtained through that survey. When the data obtained in the study are examined, it is seen that the public opinion surveys are followed by a large part of the population and the results of this researches have a certain effect on the political preferences. The level of the effect increases in parallel with the frequency of following public opinion surveys. So those who are most effected by those researches are the ones who most frequently follow those researches. It is seen that TV has the first place, when we look at the mass media, where the public opinion surveys are most frequently followed. The internet, newspapers, radio and magazines are the other ones in that category, respectively. The survey researches being news topic is a commonly seen case, especially in election periods. This situation is more striking for television and internet news. Particularly the internet having an interactive feature creates the ground for constantly occurrence of various large or small scale questionnaires on political preferences. This ensures the public opinion surveys remaining for a longer time on the voter agenda. On television, public opinion surveys are not only included in the news, but also most of the political programs emphasize those research results. As a result of that, voters' interest in public opinion survey results increases. The research shows also that, there is a relationship between the educational level of voters and their level of being effected by public opinion surveys. According to that result, it is revealed that the individuals with low educational levels are more affected by public opinion surveys. This may be due to the fact that the sources of political information vary according to the level of education. While political information resources of the individuals with low educational levels are more limited, political information sources of those with higher educational levels may be more diversified. For instance, political education of individuals with higher educational levels is realized not only through mass media, but also those individuals can easily enter into environments, where politics is more actively engaged, communicate with senior political bodies and reach higher political figures more easily. Hence that diversifies the sources of political information for individuals and allows them to be less exposed to the effects of information from only a single channel. The research also reveals that, there is a relationship between individuals’ political participation levels and times for decision-making; and their level of being effected through public opinion surveys. When the data on that issue is examined, it is found that a large majority of the participants attends politics at audience level and the effect of public opinion surveys is at the highest level on those individuals. When the times for decision-making on voting are observed, it is seen that more than half of the participants say that the party to be voted on is already been known well in advance, so they belong to the stable voter class. When the relationship between time for decision-making and the effect level of public opinion surveys is considered, it is found that the individuals in the stable voter class are least affected by the results of those researches. On the other hand, it is seen that the individuals in the unstable voter class; whose time for decision-making is not clear in advance, and decisions are made a few days before the elections, after the candidates are determined and they evaluate the election campaigns; are affected more by the public opinion surveys. When the data on the trust in public opinion surveys and the importance attributed to them are examined, the vast majority of individuals think that those surveys are important, but do not agree on the opinion that those researches are reliable. In addition, it has been found that the individuals, who have the opinion that public opinion surveys are important and reliable, are more affected by those surveys. According to the results of the correlation analysis, there is a positive relationship between the importance given to the public opinion surveys and the level of being affected by the public opinion surveys; and between the level of the reliance in the public opinion surveys and the level of being affected by those surveys. As a result, the stronger gets the opinion that public opinion surveys are important and reliable; the higher becomes their level of effect. One of the interesting results that emerged in the research is on the direction of the effect of public opinion surveys. It has been determined that the research have not revealed results corroborating the widespread thought suggesting the public opinion surveys to have an effect of creating a tendency through the popular one; but instead it was seen that those surveys may more commonly have a whiplash effect on Turkish voters. Regarding the data on that issue, it is seen that whiplash effect appears in the groups formed according to gender, age, income, occupation and education at a very high level, compared to the other effects. However, another important finding is that public opinion surveys has the effect of "passivating" on political behaviour, as a new type of effect. It can be argued from this finding that, the Turkish voters have a voting behaviour, which is more accordant with the party identity or ideological voting model. That is due to the degree of loyalty to the party being quite high for both models. For that reason; during their decision processes, voters may not even consider any other party than the party they adopted, while making voting decisions. In the study called "Political Communication" in which Kalender (2005: 228) examined the voter behaviour, similar results to the ones obtained in this study had been obtained, and the Turkish voters had been found to be not inclined to vote in the direction of rational choice model, but rather to vote according to religious beliefs and ideologies. Today, when central parties are involved in political arena, the fear of the minor party voters for their parties to be unable to pass the election threshold and their worry for their votes to be wasted, may lead them to the major parties. One question was also asked in the survey to measure that situation, and the results show that voters may vote for any political party in that anxiety. That result also measures the influence of public opinion surveys on voter behaviour, indirectly. Since, it is necessary for the voters to have knowledge about the voting rates of a party or candidate, in order to prefer a political party or candidate with such an idea. That kind of information before the election may only be achieved through public opinion surveys. So this shows that the voters, who vote for one of the parties with high voting rates for avoiding vote-split, vote indirectly under the of public opinion surveys. As a result, public opinion surveys affect political behaviour by directing voting behaviour of individuals. For that reason, it is seen that, the use of public opinion surveys as a strategic tool at the point of making electoral success for the political parties or the candidates for political decision-making mechanisms, is not an unavailing effort; and those surveys exceedingly deserve the interest shown to them by the politicians, and that interest will continue increasingly in the future.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kamuoyu, Kamuoyu Araştırmaları, Siyasal Davranış, Konya, Public Opinion, Public Opinion Polls, Political Behaviour
Kaynak
Turkish Studies (Elektronik)
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
12
Sayı
31
Künye
Türkmenoğlu, A T. (2017). Kamuoyu Araştırmalarının Siyasal Davranış Üzerindeki Etkisi: Aktif Seçmenden Pasif Seçmene Doğru. Turkish Studies (Elektronik). 12, 31, 397-426.
