Effect of time horizon on wind speed prediction with ann
Yükleniyor...
Dosyalar
Tarih
2018
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Yıldız Technical University
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Proper utilization of renewable energy sources in electricity production is inevitable due to the environmentalconcerns and global warming fight. Therefore, predictability of renewable electricity is a very significant issue fora long time. Main aim of this study, different from the literature, is to investigate the change of wind speedprediction errors for different time horizons. Different prediction time horizons (10, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes)were used, and the results were compared through the error measures and the regression values. The mean squarederrors and the regression values vary between 0.819 and 5.570, and between 77.8% and 97.1%, respectively. Theprediction error changes almost logarithmically, and the rate of change decreases with the increasing time horizon.A new analysis approach was proposed to see the change of the prediction error with time horizon. The equation,y 1.5413ln(x) - 2.7428, representing the change of the mean squared error with time horizon was obtained.
Açıklama
WOS:000431972300002
Anahtar Kelimeler
Wind energy, Wind speed prediction, Artificial neural network, Time horizon
Kaynak
Journal of Thermal Engineering
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q3
Cilt
4
Sayı
2
Künye
Pusat, S. Akkoyunlu, M.T. (2018).Effect of time horizon on wind speed prediction with ann. Journal of Thermal Engineering, 4, 2, Special 7, 1770-1779.
